The Holiday Shopping Season’s MVP Race is Underway

When it comes to the holiday shopping season, indirect tax teams need to stay on their toes year-round.

As I mentioned in a recent post, summer shopping now rivals holiday peaks as consumers shop earlier to combat rising costs: 53% of shoppers expected to purchase holiday items early, according to the Vertex Commerce Study. In response, indirect tax teams are adjusting to prolonged promotional periods by automating rate updates, managing sales tax holidays, and ensuring omnichannel compliance as the traditional holiday season expands into summer and autumn months.

Now that the traditional holiday season is upon us, it’s worth checking in on consumer-related trends and developments, many of which will influence retailers’ and e-commerce companies’ 2026 priorities and investments. Since there’s so much going on right now, I’m going to discuss purchasing-related trends here while addressing omnichannel trends and developments related to changing consumer preferences in another post.

Consumer Sentiment Declines

When it comes to consumer spending, the signals are decidedly mixed. Overall consumer sentiment is down compared to recent years. The University of Michigan’s preliminary November reading of its ongoing Surveys of Consumers research shows that consumer sentiment and expectations as well as consumers’ view of current economic conditions declined slightly from October and much more markedly compared to November 2024. Overall consumer sentiment declined by about 30% from November 2024 to November 2025. Cross cuts of the data show some bright spots. For example, consumers with the largest stock holdings (the top third) posted an 11% increase in their sentiment.

These findings combined with concerns over tariffs, inflation, and other economic conditions mean that many shoppers have grown far more price-sensitive and value-driven: “75 percent of consumers expect to spend more on gifts this year, primarily due to higher prices rather than increased income or a longer shopping list,” according to a Total Retail article authored by a team of Gartner experts citing their firm’s research. “Trade uncertainty is intensifying this sentiment, with 69 percent of shoppers anticipating that tariffs and other factors will make holiday shopping more expensive.”

This view aligns with what we’re hearing from our customers and partners. In addition to early holiday season deal-hunting, we’re seeing consumers:

• Becoming more selective in response to higher prices
• Increasing buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) usage
• Increasing their use of loyalty programs that offer points for use on future purchases.

Value-Seeking Increases

Earlier this year, Deloitte published a report on the “value-seeking consumer.” The research shows that 40% of U.S. consumers exhibit value-seeking behaviors – “a volatile but upward trend that demands strategic attention from retail leaders.”

The differences between price and value are more complex, and more intertwined, than you might think. While the research shows that price is a strong predictor of perceived value, as much as 40% of consumers’ perceptions of value stem from factors other than price. These factors include superior quality (product consistency, reliability, customer service), winning attitudes (friendly, helpful staff), and higher trust scores. In fact, these qualities are associated with “more-value-for-the-price” brands (MVPs). Consumers indicate that they intend to buy more from MVPs than they spend with “lower-value-for-the-price” (LVP) competitors.

Most of the enablers of MVP factors – flexible pricing models, seamless omnichannel integration, and market differentiation – have impacts on indirect tax compliance and planning. Regardless of how the retailers fare this holiday shopping season, tax groups should expect to see more sophisticated pricing strategies that balance cost management with value perception in 2026.